Trying to figure out WTF is going on Like a great many people, I suspect, I was taken aback by the National's headline informing us that British Labour in Scotland (BLiS) had won the Hamilton by-election. I reckon nobody would have been more surprised by this turn of events than BLiS leader-like thing, Anas Sarwar. His first thought would surely have been to wonder how the hell his pretendy party had managed to win despite the 'Labour' brand having been made toxic by his boss, Sir Keir Starmer. His second thought would have been an even more astounded "How the fuck did the SNP manage to lose!?". At which point he would have used up his entire day's thinking capacity and would need to go for a wee lie down. It's a good question. How the fuck did the SNP manage to lose? Not only did they lose, but they also lost to the supposed no-hopers of BLiS and not to the party which John Swinney had identified as enemy number one, Reform UK. Compared to the 2021 Scottish general election, the SNP lost a massive seventeen points vote share. The SNP had what was said to be a 'star' candidate in Katy Loudon, and she lost to a BLiS candidate who was unfavourably compared to a monkey in a red rosette. (With apologies to our simian cousins.) In theory, the SNP should have been able to win with a cardboard cut-out of Peter Murrell as their candidate. The point being that there is no way this result can be explained by BLiS having done something right. It can only be explained by the SNP having done everything wrong. No doubt we'll get the usual guff from John Swinney about how he has listened to the voters and how there are lessons to be learned and how his party will have to reflect on the result and blaaah! But when has this ever happened? When have we ever seen any indication that the SNP has listened and learned? If the leadership had so much as had a chat about the party's trouncing in the 2024 UK general election, there might have been the possibility of some awareness. But for the past decade we have watched the SNP lurch from tragic error to catastrophic misjudgement and each time it seems that their moving on is accomplished with an alacrity which suggests nothing other than a frantic desire to avoid any examination of the serial failings and failures lest the merest speck of blame fall on the cabal that has hijacked the party. There are no consequences for those responsible. This is a theme that pervades the British political system which has so completely captured the SNP and the rest of Scotland's political elite. Authority is concentrated while consequences are distributed in a phenomenon almost analogous to the privatisation of profit and socialisation of risk that is a defining characteristic of accumulative capitalism. Established power is always defensive. Whether it is power at the level of a nation or power within a political party, it is always out to protect itself. Even when it is on an offensive, this is invariably some kind of pre-emptive defensive tactic. The more power the centre gathers to itself, the better its defensive capabilities. It is a process which inevitably tends to make established power invulnerable. As the sense of invulnerability increases, so constraints on the exercise of power loosen. Power is exercise in ever more extraordinary or extreme ways and with increasing disregard for the concerns and viewpoints of those outside the core. Authority is concentrated while consequences are distributed in a phenomenon almost analogous to the privatisation of profit and socialisation of risk that is a defining characteristic of accumulative capitalism. We see the outcome of this in both the UK and the Scottish governments. It is hardly necessary to catalogue the ways in which Starmer is behaving like someone who has no fear of consequences. But the Scottish Government is out of the same mould. The First Minister doesn't have the power to effectively declare war on Russia. But can we really be sure he wouldn't if he could? Can we be certain he wouldn't bend to the same imperatives as Starmer? Representative democracy is functionally democratic only to the extent that the elected representatives fear the people. It works only to the extent that the people have the capacity to visit consequences on those elected representatives who fail them - or betray them. The electoral system maintains an illusion of visiting consequences. If an elected representative has failed or betrayed the people, they can be 'voted out'. Their status and privileges can be forfeit. The individual suffers consequences. But the core does not. Because the core is power - which must be imagined as an entity separate from the individuals who hold positions of power. Established power persists even as the individuals who hold high office come and go. People in positions of power serve that entity and not those who placed them in those positions. Believing - mistakenly - that they are protected by the established power entity, they do not fear the people enough. Established power does not fear the people at all. Prevailing (established) power fears only countervailing power. The people can only be a countervailing power if they combine. Over the centuries, established power, being always defensive, has developed increasingly effective ways of preventing the people from combining and so becoming a potential threat. Established power does not fear the people. Established power is unafraid of consequences. Consequences do not touch established power. Now, relate all the above to the SNP/Scottish Government. Relate it to John Swinney and his 'inner circle'. Does it not seem that they are impervious to the consequences of a debacle such as the Hamilton by-election? Do you suppose John Swinney will resign? Do you imagine the SNP leadership will commission an independent internal review of the election campaign and the machinery behind it? Or, like me, do you expect the core to close around those responsible for operating that machinery? John Swinney is a loser. But does that even matter anymore? You're currently a free subscriber to Peter A Bell. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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