Trying to figure out WTF is going on There is no pro-independence majority in the polling figures published in today’s National. To arrive at the projected 66 seats, SNP (55), SGP (10), and Alba (1) have been added together. But none of these parties has indicated that their election manifestos will include a commitment to immediate action on the constitutional issue. They are NOMINALLY pro-independence. They are pro-independence in name only. They talk about independence for electioneering purposes. But at best they have the restoration of Scotland's rightful constitutional status as a vague, long-term aspiration. If that poll/seat projection is realised it is a recipe for another five years of paralysis and decay for Scotland's cause. All because people are focused on WHO they are voting for and not WHAT they are voting for. Incredibly, there are still people out there who are utterly convinced that the only thing they need to do to get independence is vote SNP. It's as if the last decade simply didn't happen. Incredible as it is that pro-independence voters continue to put their faith in the SNP, it is downright unbelievable that they should trust the Scottish Greens to prioritise the constitutional issue. If the SNP has gone cold on independence, then the Scottish Greens are frozen solid! The solitary Alba representative envisage by the seat projection would be as a lamb bleating in the desert even if they did have something meaningful to say about the practicalities of restoring Scotland's independence. Which of course, they do not. Alba no more has a plan for restoring independence than the SNP. But, assuming the numbers to be accurate, there is worse in prospect even than the five additional years of pusillanimous procrastination that is all we can hope for from a notionally pro-independence majority made up of nominally pro-independence parties packed with self-serving and constitutionally clueless cowards. In those numbers we see the ominous shadow of a potential 'grand alliance' of British parties intent on having Scotland locked into a 'reformed' Union modelled on the one which shackles Catalunya to the Spanish state. Look at the seat projection: Conservatives (17) That's a total of 44. Add on Labour (19) and it's 63 - within touching distance of a majority. Who among us would totally discount the possibility of British Labour in Scotland under Sir Keir Starmer's leadership entering into some kind of pact with the other British parties? And should they do so, who among us would bet our pension that at least some of the Scottish Greens couldn't be lured into such a 'grand alliance'? Is there anything Patrick Harvie won't do for a bit of status? The projected scenario does not make the emergence of a British nationalist alliance a serious prospect. But it does serve as a warning. The parliamentary arithmetic has only to shift slightly in the wrong direction for the situation to change dramatically. And that shift could yet be from SNP to Reform. Many people reading this will scoff at the idea of voters switching from the SNP to Reform. But I have spoken to at least half a dozen people in the last few weeks whose disenchantment with the SNP is such that they have either decided to go with Reform or are considering doing so. Needless to say, I cannot possibly go along with this. But it is not as counter-intuitive as might be supposed. When people are disillusioned with the political establishment, they are vulnerable to the blandishments of a disruptor. At present, Reform is the very definition of a disruptor. Being the disruptor is Nigel Farage's particular political skill - if not his only one. The polling numbers unequivocally indicate just how good he is at being the disruptor - the man who is going to shake things up. In beige-bland landscape of today's Scottish political scene, it doesn't take much to look like a new broom. Reform polling success is entirely attributable to their relative colourfulness and the infinite appeal of the 'fresh start'. It may all be entirely a superficial facade. The point is, it doesn't have to be anything more than that to look appetising next to the insipid fare of the SNP. As ever, The National tries to put a positive spin on things. But realistically, there is nothing in the numbers to raise the spirits of Scottish Nationalists. As things stand, the 2026 election is shaping up to be yet another tragically missed opportunity for Scotland's cause. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Peter A Bell, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe.
|
Wednesday, 19 March 2025
No good news
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Flirting with the radical
As things stand, there is no way for any of us to vote for independence in the 2026 election. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ...
-
thealchemistspottery posted: " "I shall pass through this world but once.If therefore, there be any kindness I can sho...
No comments:
Post a Comment