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Trying to figure out WTF is going on

Rumblings in the ranks?

Peter A Bell

Jun 7

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Even this cynical old fart must own up to a momentary uplift on seeing this headline in The National - SNP activists reveal HQ silenced Reform strategy concerns. Is this the start of it, I wondered. Does this faint, low rumbling in the ranks of the SNP membership portend some greater turmoil? Are the members at last starting to realise that their leaders are leading them only from disaster to catastrophe? Could we yet see the internal revolt against the Sturgeonist cabal which effortlessly hijacked the SNP in the months and years subsequent to the 2014 referendum?

Then I recalled the numerous previous occasions when I thought there was justification for pinning hopes on the rank and file of the party. How often in the run-up to an SNP conference have I speculated that this would be the one where the delegates got up on their hind legs for something more than a dutiful standing ovation? Too many!

Reading the sub-text of the anonymous party members quoted in the article, there is certainly an undercurrent of discontent. It would be surprising if there wasn't given the humiliation the SNP suffered in Hamilton. But is it enough? Has the membership yet reached the point at which uncritical loyalty gives way to harsh reality? Supposing Hamilton was the last straw for a significant part of the membership, is there anything they can do?

It's not just about numbers. Even if there were thousands of members thinking it was time to oust the cabal there is so little networking within the SNP that all or most of them might believe they are on their own. It is difficult to see how a revolt could happen when communication between individuals and branches is not facilitated. Or actively prevented? The cabal has conference well stitched up. I don't know what the situation in with the revived National Council. But we must assume the leadership would not have allowed this if it posed any threat to their control of the party. Even if there was some way to coordinate action, it is difficult to see what form that action might take. Is the anger and frustration among members sufficient that they might defy the party's constitution? Ah hae ma doots!

Nonetheless, those of us outside the SNP should stand firmly and publicly with any part of the membership which seeks to take back their party from the cabal. They'll need all the support they can get.

And if they fail? If Swinney et al have irretrievably split the SNP from the independence movement, what then? I still maintain that our best hope for making the 2026 election a democratic event that progresses Scotland's cause is to 'persuade' all the nominally pro-independence parties to adopt the Manifesto for Independence (M4I). But suppose there is no internal revolt in the SNP. Or suppose there is an internal revolt, but the new leadership is no more prepared to confront the British state than the existing leadership. Or suppose one or more of the other nominally pro-independence parties decline to incorporate M4I into their election manifestos. The plan only works if at least the main players get on board. Really, it should be all of them. In short, suppose the Manifesto for Independence campaign fails, as seems very likely. Is there a Plan B? Is there anything else that might be done?

It was a comment/question on social media that got me thinking about this. I had been working on the assumption that M4I was the last ditch. But I am always prepared to question my own assumptions even if I sometimes need to be prompted. So, I asked myself the perennial question, what next? Thinking like a rational political strategist, what options would be available should the M4I initiative fail.

In one of those coincidences that isn't nearly as strange as it first appears, the comment that got me wondering whether there was life after M4I came to my attention at the same time as a question about what is happening with New Scotland Party (NSP). I should add for the benefit of those who are unaware that development of NSP has been on hold so that the M4I campaign could be prioritised. This was not a big deal as there were no plans to stand candidates in the 2026 Scottish general election. The intention was to return to the work of organising the party depending on what happened with the M4I effort.

I should also mention that there has also been a bit of pressure from those who took the view that NSP should stand candidates next year. One individual - I won't mention names, but his initials are Geoff Bush - devised an election strategy that looks credible. I always kept this in mind but, as I say, we were not really thinking in terms of standing candidates. I am now wondering if it is time to revisit this matter.

With all the caveats regarding a by-election compared with a general election, the Hamilton result has to give us all a prompt to review our thinking about the 2026 election. In a scenario where the SNP leadership persists in taking no lessons from any of its failures and the membership continues to tolerate this and the M4I initiative falls flat, what would a dispassionate, rational strategist say about the possibility of NSP standing candidates in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? I reckon they would probably say "Why not!?".

Why not, indeed? All we'd need is a huge amount of money.