Trying to figure out WTF is going on A projected 29-seat majority pro-independence majority is great, if your objective is no more than to give a majority to parties which say they are pro-independence. Scotland's cause needs a lot more than that out of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. There is encouragement to be found in this projection. But those getting all orgasmic over a 29-seat majority for parties using the word 'independence' as an electioneering device are probably too shallow-minded to discern the less superficial reason for cautious optimism. Let's be clear about one thing! Even if John Curtice's projection turns out to be accurate; even if his estimate proves to have been overly conservative, nothing about this assures us of any action on the constitutional issue in the next parliament. There is absolutely no rational - I stress the word rational - reason to suppose the projected parliamentary arithmetic adds up to progress for the fight to restore Scotland's independence. Rather than being a constantly niggling concern, the idea of Anas Sarwar or his Tory counterpart (I've forgotten his name) being First Minister has receded into our darker nightmares. The substantial cause for small celebration - half a party-popper, perhaps - is that the poll suggests we need not worry about the British parties taking power. Or at least, we don't need to fret about this quite so much. Rather than being a constantly niggling concern, the idea of Anas Sarwar or his Tory counterpart (I've forgotten his name) being First Minister has receded into our darker nightmares. It would seem that we are justified in setting aside the admittedly remote possibility of the British parties cobbling together an alliance sufficient to outmanoeuvre the ever-bickering Scottish and nominally pro-independence parties. This does not, however, mean we can forget fears of another five years in limbo for Scotland's cause. As things stand, none of the nominally pro-independence parties is proposing any action which would get Scotland's cause out of the doldrums, where it has languished for more than a decade despite having had a nominally pro-independence parliamentary majority for what will be fifteen years come the election and a nominally pro-independence government for almost two decades. Understand this! Unless something dramatic occurs in the next few months, the parliament and government we will have after the 2026 Scottish Parliament election will have no more concrete commitment to action on the constitutional issue than the parliament and government we've had since late 2014. Bear in mind also that even when politicians and their parties are promising to do something we cannot be confident that they will do something. If they are not promising to do something then we would be wise to take that as a promise to do nothing. Look at the numbers again. (Never forgetting that this is merely a projection.) 57 seats for the SNP, 15 for the Greens, and 7 for Alba Party with a combined 47% of the constituency vote and 46% of the regional vote. None of those parties has a plan for restoring Scotland's independence. Therefore, not a single vote has endorsed such a plan. At the same time, the numbers are tantalisingly close to a potential super-mandate for a plan if only there was one. Those unable to think in terms other than parties will surely be banging the drum even louder for a supermajority. But a supermajority serves no purpose. It doesn't do anything for Scotland's cause. Not only because none of the parties involved is committed to any plan, but because even if they were proposing to do something there is nothing they could do with a 30-seat majority that couldn't be done with a 3-seat majority. A super-mandate would be historic. A super-mandate would mean Scotland was on the verge of liberation. A super-mandate, in contrast, changes everything. A super-mandate is defined as a working majority of genuinely pro-independence MSPs with over 50% of the vote on both ballots. A super-mandate would be historic. A super-mandate would mean Scotland was on the verge of liberation. But there can only be a super-mandate if there is something to be mandated. There must be a plan. All the parties must be committed to the same plan so that all the votes for those parties and their candidates can count towards the super-mandate. The National/Find Out Now poll and John Curtice's seat projection suggest this super-mandate is within reach. The only element missing is a Manifesto for Independence to which ALL the pro-independence parties and candidates are committed. To be more accurate, as the Manifesto for Independence exists, all that is lacking is the commitment. Does anyone believe such a commitment will be forthcoming without some serious pressure being applied to the nominally pro-independence parties? This is why the Manifesto for Independence Petition is crucial. It serves as an indicator of demand for the kind of shared commitment that is required as the subject of a super-mandate. The parties will not adopt a common Manifesto for Independence because all of them are entirely focused on electoral success for themselves, with all the privilege and perquisites this entails. Only the combined strength of the independence movement is enough to compel the parties to put Scotland's cause before partisan interest and personal ambition. The Manifesto for Independence Petition is hosted on the New Scotland Party website for convenience and security. But it is obviously not party-political because it is aimed at all nominally pro-independence parties and candidates. Click the button below, sign the petition and then share it as widely as possible. We have an opportunity to do something monumental with the 2016 Scottish Parliament election. Please don't let this be yet another opportunity squandered. You're currently a free subscriber to Peter A Bell. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Wednesday, 16 April 2025
Our big chance!
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